The future weather on Tenerife and the subtropical Canary Islands likely to be more severely affected by climate change than other parts of the world.
The Canary Islands enjoy a subtropical climate, offering pleasant conditions year-round, both in summer and winter. However, a rise in temperature of approximately 1.5 degrees Celsius over recent decades has led to more extreme weather patterns, such as longer periods of drought, heatwaves, and intense rainfall.
If global warming is not mitigated, the Canary Islands will also face the consequences of climate change. By the end of the century, the average temperature could increase by another 2.5 degrees Celsius. This will impact not only humans but also the environment. Certain plants and animals may be unable to adapt to the rapidly changing meteorological conditions, which will inevitably result in the extinction of these species.
Water Vapor as the Culprit
The European organization Copernicus Climate Change Service and the World Meteorological Organization have warned that July 2023 recorded the highest temperatures ever measured since meteorological data has been collected. The trend is clear: June 2023 had already broken all records for the warmest month in recorded history, and the Canary Islands were no exception.
On the Canary archipelago, the temperature increase is expected to be more significant in higher altitudes than in coastal areas. This is due to changes in atmospheric conditions and global warming, which produces more water vapor, the primary greenhouse gas affecting the Canary Islands (not CO2, editor’s note).
Climate vs. Meteorology
Meteorology refers to weather at a specific time and place, such as what the weather will be like tomorrow at 3:00 PM on Plaza de España in Santa Cruz. Climate, on the other hand, refers to the average temperature over a 30-year period. When discussing climate trends, we refer to these average values of meteorological criteria.
In addition to changes in average temperatures on the Canary Islands, scientists have noted another significant effect: decreased precipitation. This is harder to measure because precipitation patterns are less uniform than temperature trends. However, higher-altitude areas may experience more rainfall in the future, significantly more than coastal regions.
Strategies
The changes described above seem inevitable. As a result, governments are beginning to study the effects of these changes on various economic sectors to adapt accordingly. Examples include the tourism industry and water supply for livestock farming, agriculture, and horticulture.
Thermal spikes, which will increasingly cause heat stress in the coming years—especially during summer in the southern regions of the two largest islands—will not be as idyllic as the current conditions. All these elements must be consolidated into strategies to protect the Canary Islands’ tourism-based economy.
Unknown / © Photography
The Future Weather on Tenerife ©
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